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Beatles Biscuit Kinda Mafia! Night
9 May 2019
9.27pm
joshthenesnerd
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most interesting

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50yearslate

i guess i should set up a signature soon? maybe?

9 May 2019
9.40pm
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Kaniffee
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Btw the way I finally finished this (very long) thread and I have some thoughts on it, but I'm still trying to process everything and put it all together.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
8.37am
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Kaniffee
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I don't think roleclaiming is a good idea (yes I claimed digestive earlier, but that was beacuse I hadn't read through all of the games yet).  If you're a mafia or power role it's in your best interest to claim digestive.  Claiming Mafia genuinely ends the game, and if you're a power role claiming your role makes you a target of the mafia.  Also though in the 2 previous games on here the 2 power claims were uncontested, that doesn't gaurantee that they are a power role.  If a Mafia claims a power role, and then the real one counterclaims there's only a 50/50 chance of lynching the right one, and even after that there's a 2nd mafia scum that can kill the power role after the fact.  This is a bit of a gambit on the Mafia's part to attempt this, but it's plausible enough that I don't think we should rely on uncontested role claims even if it's worked before.  This also also sorta depends on whether the high energy biscuit is allowed to save the cracknel this game, in which case it would actually be good for the cracknel to claim, but not the high energy biscuit. 

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
9.21am
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vonflare
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i find joshthenesnerd suspicious

 

VOTE: josh

10 May 2019
9.21am
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50yearslate
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That said, if you're a power role and somebody else claims to be a power role, it would probably be a good idea to claim your role.

Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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10 May 2019
9.22am
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50yearslate
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vonflare said
i find joshthenesnerd suspicious

 

VOTE: josh

  

After three posts saying nearly nothing? What's your reasoning? ahdn_george_01

Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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10 May 2019
10.00am
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Kaniffee
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As far as not voting goes there's a 2/7 chance we lynch mafia based on random chance which is about 28%.  There's a (2/7)*(1/4) chance that we lynch a power biscuit and the mafia kills a power biscuit. Which is only about a 7% chance of happening.  I'm not exactly sure if I calculated this correctly (as in idk how to calculate how much a mafia's vote influences other votes mccartney-shrug_01_gif), but this scenario of losing both power biscuits on night one seems unlikely enough, that we should at least be open to voting on the first day.

I have school and an AP test today so i'll post my assessment on everyone in about 10 hours and decide for myself if it's worth voting then.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
10.30am
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50yearslate
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Good luck on your test!

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Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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10 May 2019
10.36am
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50yearslate
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Also, as for the probability side of things, the odds are never in our favor. It may be unlikely that both power biscuits are killed, but it's certainly possible, and that's a risk we really shouldn't take.

After all, if theoretical probability worked the way it was supposed to, I wouldn't be a digestive 638,686,246,973,628 times in a row ahdn_paul_01

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The Hole Got Fixed

Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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10 May 2019
10.51am
joshthenesnerd
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vonflare said
i find joshthenesnerd suspicious

 

VOTE: josh

  

oooh spicy. i'm super curious for your reasoning. it's quite obvious, i'm just acting odd in general but definitely tell me your thought process.

i guess i should set up a signature soon? maybe?

10 May 2019
10.56am
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Kaniffee
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50yearslate said
Also, as for the probability side of things, the odds are never in our favor. It may be unlikely that both power biscuits are killed, but it's certainly possible, and that's a risk we really shouldn't take.

After all, if theoretical probability worked the way it was supposed to, I wouldn't be a digestive 638,686,246,973,628 times in a row ahdn_paul_01

  

Those are different types of probabilities though.  The probability I'm talking about is contained within one game, whereas the probability of you being a biscuit for any game is exactly the same each time because each game is separate and the roles are selected randomly each time.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
11.10am
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50yearslate
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Kaniffee said

50yearslate said

Also, as for the probability side of things, the odds are never in our favor. It may be unlikely that both power biscuits are killed, but it's certainly possible, and that's a risk we really shouldn't take.

After all, if theoretical probability worked the way it was supposed to, I wouldn't be a digestive 638,686,246,973,628 times in a row ahdn_paul_01

 

  

Those are different types of probabilities though.  The probability I'm talking about is contained within one game, whereas the probability of you being a biscuit for any game is exactly the same each time because each game is separate and the roles are selected randomly each time.

  

That's fair. But you can't deny that there is always a chance that one or more power biscuits will be killed if we vote someone out, and as we only have a 2/7 (I think) chance of actually killing a Yoko or a John that's really not a risk I think we should take.

Best-case but most unlikely scenario: We kill a John or Yoko. 

Most probable scenario: We kill a digestive and are put at a disadvantage.

Worst-case scenario which is also unlikely: We kill a power biscuit and the other power biscuit is eaten tonight. If the High Energy is killed, we will definitely lose a biscuit tonight. If we don't vote anyone out, we have a chance that no biscuits will be eaten.

Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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10 May 2019
11.07pm
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Kaniffee
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Okay yall it is time (though this is probably closer to 12 hours rip) for me to provide some reads.

Fiddy: something about the way she's acting seems ... off.  Like she's trying really hard to act like her town self to the point that it's an exaggeration. Then again could be regular ol' digestive biscuit Fiddy, but still ... off.

Holey: also kind of sus I get vibes that he's coordinating with Fiddy which would suggest either that they're a team, or that Holey is trying to ally with a biscuit to gain their trust.  Also the whole joke voting for Fiddy thing is reminiscent if the game Holey and ASJ derailed the game accusingaand ended up winning as a john/yoko team (though my memory on this game could be off if anyone remembers the pg that would be helpful).

Joshthenesnerd: kinda sus but not that different from previous games either way. will wait and see.

StrawberryFields91: hasn't posted a ton, which is typical behavior.

Vonflare: i don't get why they find joshthenesnerd suspicious enough to vote which is in itself suspicious.  I think they have good reason for wanting to vote but their methods about this confuse me.

Jamessick: hasn't posted much and is new so impossible to tell.

 

... But and this is a big but my reasoning for my 2 biggest sus is dependent on there being a John and a Yoko.  Since SS?'s first post of the game only mentions Yoko and not John that suggests to me that they're might only be Yoko, but I'm not sure since most games have 2.  This potentially changes everything since that means there aren't 2 people working together.

@Starr Shine? can you clarify whether or not there is a John this game? And give us time to vote or not based on that?

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
11.10pm
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Kaniffee
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In case it's not clear I'm waiting to vote til I get confirmation on this.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

10 May 2019
11.16pm
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Kaniffee
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Kaniffee said
Holey: also kind of sus I get vibes that he's coordinating with Fiddy which would suggest either that they're a team, or that Holey is trying to ally with a biscuit to gain their trust.  Also the whole joke voting for Fiddy thing is reminiscent if the game Holey and ASJ derailed the game accusingaand ended up winning as a john/yoko team (though my memory on this game could be off if anyone remembers the pg that would be helpful).  

Oh yikes major typo. The bolded part should read: Also the whole joke voting for Fiddy thing is reminiscent of the game Holey and ASJ derailed the game by accusing each other and ended up winning as a john/yoko team.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

11 May 2019
1.37am
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The Hole Got Fixed
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I don't remember ever being scum with ASJ? When was that?

Oh, by the way, this post was made by The Hole Got Fixed!

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11 May 2019
4.23am
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Kaniffee
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If it was anything I would have to guess it was the first time you played as scum, but that was pretty far back and I don't remember the pages for that game.

My memory on what happened that game could definitely be faulty though because I rushed through about 60 pages in one day.

Why yes that is a picture of Paul dabbing. Deal with it.

11 May 2019
8.29am
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The Hole Got Fixed
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None of that matters though because I'm not scum - however I'm now getting a few sus reads but will wait until tomorrow before voting.

Oh, by the way, this post was made by The Hole Got Fixed!

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11 May 2019
9.24am
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jamessick
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Well, it looks like it's been a few "interesting" days on here.  So, some strategists say to claim a role? Okay, so I am one of those harmless little digestive biscuits. I am still sticking to my VOTE: No Kill.

11 May 2019
9.53am
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50yearslate
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Interesting point you bring up, Kaniffee, about there possibly not being a John or Yoko? Starr Shine could you please clarify?

I mean she did say it was a normal game which implies that there is both a John and Yoko... but I don't know. She is Starr Shine, after all. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she did something tricky like that to mess with us. But I kinda hope not.

Love one another.

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(I'm Fiddy, not Walrian)

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